Order effects in judgmental forecasting

Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting

Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...

Judgmental forecasting from graphs and from experience

Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock pric...

The impact of rumors on the judgmental forecasting process

This stu& investigates the impact of rumors when forecasting changing time series. In this study, the subjects were presented with three types of rumors about the future direction of the time series correct rumors, incorrect rumors and rumors which provide no information. Results indicate that correct rumors improved the quality of the forecasts; incorrect rumors and rumors with no information ...

On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems

All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission, provided that full acknowledgement is given. Abstract Forecasting at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) disaggregate level in order to support operations management has proved a very difficult task. The levels of accuracy achieved have major consequences for companies at all levels in...